Future of Edinburgh mapped out as the first in a series of thought leadership seminars kicks off

Edinburgh should aim to double the size of its population in the next 25 years and take a global lead on making a positive case for inward migration, according to a top economist and government adviser.

Scotland’s capital should harness its international reputation as an arts and culture centre and embrace the notion of ‘global citizenship’ in order to promote itself as a fantastic place to live, work and have a family.

Andrew Wilson, the former SNP MSP, who wrote last year’s Growth Commission report for the Scottish Government, said that the city needs to continue to be a welcoming place for outsiders not just to maintain its international prestige but to meet “urgent” population challenges.

Mr Wilson, a founder of Charlotte Street Partners strategic communications consultancy, was speaking at the first of the ‘Edinburgh Dialogues – An International City’, a new series of high-level seminars which took place on Monday at The University of Edinburgh’s Business School on Buccleuch Place.

“The urgent thing for Scotland and for Edinburgh is to fix population – in other words get a bigger working age population in the country, which means migration,” he said.

He said: “I think we need to double the size of the city in the next generation. It’s a gobsmacking thought, but why not. Why wouldn’t you, when you think about it. We need to do so sustainably, whilst sustaining and stewarding the essence of what makes Edinburgh, Edinburgh. So in other words we need to grow exponentially but keep hold of what makes you, you. And that for me is the biggest strategic challenge, in a nutshell.”

The current population of Edinburgh is around 520,000, of which 76,000 (14%) are from overseas; of that 47% are Europeans, said Liz McAreavey, Chief Executive of Edinburgh Chamber of Commerce, who also took part in the debate, Chaired by the Business School’s Chris Carter.

“You can see the challenge that’s coming to the city,” she said, referencing Brexit. “We are hugely reliant on migrant labour, not just in skills, in terms of digital skills, fintech, accountancy, education and research, but also in hospitality and tourism. Some of our hotels reported that more than 70% of their workforce come from mainland Europe. The EICC recently said that less than 7% of their hospitality staff are local [the figure is from the EICC’s catering sub-contractor Leith’s], so these are huge challenges in terms of keeping our economy going.”

Mr Wilson said he would advocate Scotland having a separate migration policy from the rest of the UK – whether as a future independent country or within the union – in order to address a declining working age population. He said that if Scotland had grown its population at the same rate as the rest of the UK since early 1980 it would now be at around 5.8-5.9million people, as opposed to its current estimate of around 5.3million, and that if it had kept pace with the small advanced economies of Europe it would be around 6.5million.

“Our lack of growth is abnormal,” he said “Yes, I do think we should have a different policy to the rest of the UK and that can be within the UK or outwith – and it’s over to the policy-makers to figure out how they do that. It cannot be that hard, I shouldn’t think, on the grounds that you have to have a passport to move around. I just think the whole debate around migration is all over the shop in terms of the truth versus the scare.”

He added: ” If you look at the demographics, the chart on what’s going to happen to the working population [it] would make you stay awake at night.”

Mr Wilson and Ms McAreavey both agreed that cities like Edinburgh need a long-term vision to succeed economically; Ms McAreavey said she had been surprised that Edinburgh until recently had not had a grand vision for its future, and that economic policy-making had been limited to a five-year rolling programme. She welcomed the new UK and Scottish Government-backed City Region Deal for Edinburgh and South East Scotland, whose data focus – rather than infrastructure – was “really innovative” but that it had been a bit “cart before the horse” having a City Region Deal before an overarching long-term strategy. That has now been addressed with the ‘2050 Edinburgh City Vision‘ but McAreavey said that the around 9,000 responses it has so far received from members of the public “is not good enough”.

She said: “But when you think that Sydney probably spent about £20million on their city vision and we’re cobbling together tuppence ha’penny to have a communications campaign to get citizens engaged. So, we need to invest in our future, we need to invest in our vision.”

Mr Wilson said also there needed to be a degree of risk-taking and using taxpayer money to invest in long-term economic projects; he said the city has two of the most promising economic development opportunities in the UK in the West of Edinburgh and also the Waterfront, and that once the vision is agreed we should “just get on with it and not be afraid to make a mistake”. It is crucial that cities like Edinburgh also increase the participation of older people, women and the “dispossessed”, in order to share the proceeds of growth more fairly and address some of the issues stemming from globalisation. He said productivity was less of a concern to him than addressing population and participation – the ‘three Ps’ he had written about in his report to Scottish Government.

Among other ideas, Mr Wilson also advocated a directly-elected mayor for Edinburgh. Although success has been varied across the UK, having big political figureheads in places like Manchester and London has raised the profile of politics and business in those cities.

“I am of the view that a world city like Edinburgh, more than any other local authority in Scotland, possibly would benefit from one single figurehead to promote it to the world. So, a directly-elected mayor is worth a debate, worth considering, worth a go,” he said.

‘The Edinburgh Dialogues – A City with a Heart’ will be the next seminar on Monday, February 11, featuring Scottish Greens MSP and land reform campaigner Andy Wightman and Paula Ward, Regional Leadership Director, VisitScotland.

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Picture credit: Chris Carter